Excess deaths, different countries and different age groups
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics/latest-release
In 2022
144,650 deaths that occurred by 30 September
(and were registered by 30 November),
which is 19,986 (16.0%) more than the historical average
(compared to 2015-2019)
Same period
8,160 deaths due to COVID-19 that were certified by a doctor
Non covid excess deaths
= 11,826
Week ending 30 December 2022 (Week 52)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/latest
9,517 deaths were registered in England and Wales
(393 mentioned "novel coronavirus, COVID-19)
The number of deaths was above the five-year average
Private homes, 36.9% above, (684 excess deaths)
Hospitals, 14.8% above, (537 excess deaths)
Care homes 20.4% above, (371 excess deaths)
Other settings 0.2% above, (1 excess death)
Total excess deaths, week 52 = 1,593
Percentage change compared to 5-year average (2016 to 2019 and 2021) for week 52
20.1%
Week ending 23rd December England and Wales, (week 51)
All-cause deaths registered 14,530
(COVID-19 accounted for 429, 3.0%)
Number of deaths was above the five-year average
Private homes (37.5% above, 1,120 excess deaths)
Hospitals (18.8% above, 1,031 excess deaths)
Care homes (10.5% above; 282 excess deaths)
Other settings (7.0% above, 61 excess deaths) in Week 51 in England and Wales.
Total excess deaths, week 51 = 2,492
Excess deaths in all UK age groups
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9
Data goes up to 18th November 2022
Investigating cause of excess deaths
In 1965, English statistician Sir Austin Bradford Hill
Causal relationships
Strength
The larger the association, the more likely that it is causal
Consistency, (reproducibility)
Consistent findings, different persons in different places
Specificity
No other likely explanation
Temporality
The effect has to occur after the cause (often with a delay)
Biological gradient, (dose response relationship)
Greater exposure should lead to greater incidence of the effect
(or indeed lower incident of effect)
Plausibility
A plausible mechanism between cause and effect
Coherence
Between epidemiological and laboratory findings
Experiment
Occasionally it is possible to appeal to experimental evidence
Analogy
Analogies or similarities between the observed association and any other associations
Reversibility
May work if there is no permanent damage
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